Our AI model has crunched the numbers for NRL 2026 Round 22 and produced its weekly predictions. The model draws on 1,489+ historical matches (2019–2026), incorporating recent form, head-to-head records, streak analysis, 5-game pattern recognition, and live weather data for every venue.
Current model accuracy: 73.1% across 2026 - see the full results tracker.
Round 22 Predictions
📍 Queensland Country Bank Stadium
COIN FLIP
⛅ 21°C · Wind 15 km/h · Humidity 60%
COWCowboys
58% wins this season
vs
ROORoosters
72% wins this season
AI Pick
Cowboys
(55% probability)
Cowboys last 5
L W W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Roosters last 5
W W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 64%
▲ Roosters: 5-game win streak (hist. continuation: 59%)
▲ Roosters: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 WIN Stadium
MEDIUM
⛅ 12°C · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 64%
DRADragons
11% wins this season
vs
DOLDolphins
61% wins this season
AI Pick
Dolphins
(70% probability)
Dragons last 5
L L W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 33%
Dolphins last 5
W W L L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Dolphins: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 AAMI Park
MEDIUM
❄️ 10°C · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 83%
STOStorm
42% wins this season
vs
BULBulldogs
50% wins this season
AI Pick
Storm
(73% probability)
Storm last 5
W L W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Bulldogs last 5
W W L W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 59%
⛅ Cold conditions - 10°C
⚠ Storm: Collapse pattern - was winning, now on a losing run
▲ Bulldogs: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Cbus Super Stadium
COIN FLIP
⛅ 16°C · Wind 16 km/h · Rain 0.8mm · Humidity 75%
TITTitans
33% wins this season
vs
WARWarriors
67% wins this season
AI Pick
Warriors
(54% probability)
Titans last 5
W L L W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 58%
Warriors last 5
W L W W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Titans: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
📍 Glen Willow Oval
HIGH
❄️ 10°C · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 74%
PANPanthers
78% wins this season
vs
RAIRaiders
47% wins this season
AI Pick
Panthers
(76% probability)
Panthers last 5
L L W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Raiders last 5
L W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 65%
⛅ Cold conditions - 10°C
▲ Raiders: 4-game win streak (hist. continuation: 56%)
▲ Raiders: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Suncorp Stadium
COIN FLIP
⛅ 16°C · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 73%
BROBroncos
33% wins this season
vs
KNIKnights
58% wins this season
AI Pick
Broncos
(53% probability)
Broncos last 5
L L L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Knights last 5
W W L L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▼ Knights: 3-game losing streak (hist. win next: 41%)
⚠ Knights: Collapse pattern - was winning, now on a losing run
📍 Ocean Protect Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 14°C · Wind 5 km/h · Rain 0.3mm · Humidity 80%
SHASharks
67% wins this season
vs
RABRabbitohs
56% wins this season
AI Pick
Sharks
(84% probability)
Sharks last 5
L W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 65%
Rabbitohs last 5
W L W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Sharks: 4-game win streak (hist. continuation: 44%)
▲ Sharks: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 CommBank Stadium
LOW
⛅ 15°C · Wind 11 km/h · Humidity 75%
WESWests Tigers
37% wins this season
vs
EELEels
33% wins this season
AI Pick
Eels
(65% probability)
Wests Tigers last 5
L L L L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 37%
Eels last 5
W L W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▼ Wests Tigers: 6-game losing streak (hist. win next: 29%)
⚠ Eels: Collapse pattern - was winning, now on a losing run
▲ Eels: Better recent form (last 5 games)
Round 22 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Cowboys vs Roosters | Cowboys | 55% | COIN FLIP |
| Dragons vs Dolphins | Dolphins | 70% | MEDIUM |
| Storm vs Bulldogs | Storm | 73% | MEDIUM |
| Titans vs Warriors | Warriors | 54% | COIN FLIP |
| Panthers vs Raiders | Panthers | 76% | HIGH |
| Broncos vs Knights | Broncos | 53% | COIN FLIP |
| Sharks vs Rabbitohs | Sharks | 84% | HIGH |
| Wests Tigers vs Eels | Eels | 65% | LOW |
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Predictions generated by the TippingEdge AI model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 73.1% accuracy).
Model uses 2026 season data up to Round 21.
