AFL Futures Odds 2026: Premiership, Top 8 & Wooden Spoon
The data-driven guide to every AFL futures market - with the live ladder, our model's Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season, and a de-vig tool to strip the margin out of any price.
The 2026 ladder after Round 14
Futures are priced off exactly this. Real ladder from our match database (4 points per win, 2 per draw, percentage tiebreaker). Green band: current top 8.
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle | 13 | 12 | 1 | 48 | 147.9 |
| 2 | Sydney | 13 | 11 | 2 | 44 | 147.3 |
| 3 | Geelong | 14 | 9 | 5 | 36 | 123.1 |
| 4 | Hawthorn | 13 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 113.2 |
| 5 | Adelaide | 13 | 8 | 5 | 32 | 112.4 |
| 6 | Melbourne | 13 | 8 | 5 | 32 | 102.3 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs | 14 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 90.7 |
| 8 | Gold Coast | 13 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 107.2 |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions | 13 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 106.2 |
| 10 | Greater Western Sydney | 12 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 103.2 |
| 11 | Collingwood | 13 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 99.2 |
| 12 | St Kilda | 13 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 101.9 |
| 13 | Carlton | 13 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 88.7 |
| 14 | North Melbourne | 12 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 87.7 |
| 15 | Port Adelaide | 12 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 101.4 |
| 16 | West Coast | 13 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 71.3 |
| 17 | Richmond | 12 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 60.4 |
| 18 | Essendon | 13 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 71.7 |
What the model thinks: 20,000 season simulations
We simulated the remaining 91 home-and-away games 20,000 times, using the model's win probability for every fixture (the same engine behind our weekly tips, graded at 69.0% walk-forward). Each row is the share of simulations in which a team finishes there. This is the honest version of a futures market - probabilities from a tested model, not a bookmaker's margin-loaded price.
| Team | Minor Prem | Top 4 | Top 8 | Wooden Spoon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | 92.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | - |
| Sydney | 7.0% | 98.6% | 100.0% | - |
| Geelong | 0.1% | 74.2% | 99.6% | - |
| Hawthorn | 0.1% | 61.4% | 98.2% | - |
| Adelaide | - | 41.7% | 97.5% | - |
| Brisbane Lions | - | 12.1% | 86.5% | - |
| Melbourne | - | 8.9% | 74.8% | - |
| Gold Coast | - | 1.1% | 45.8% | - |
| Greater Western Sydney | - | 1.3% | 35.1% | - |
| Western Bulldogs | - | 0.3% | 20.4% | - |
| St Kilda | - | 0.2% | 21.2% | - |
| Collingwood | - | 0.2% | 9.8% | - |
| Carlton | - | 0.1% | 9.7% | - |
| Port Adelaide | - | - | 1.1% | - |
| North Melbourne | - | - | 0.2% | - |
| West Coast | - | - | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Richmond | - | - | 0.0% | 44.4% |
| Essendon | - | - | 0.0% | 55.2% |
Simulation through Round 14, refreshed automatically. Draws (0.8% of AFL games) are treated as a coin flip's worth of points and rounded out. A dash means under 0.1%.
Market by market
Premiership / minor premiership
Fremantle are the model's runaway minor-premiership favourite at 92.8% - the kind of probability that makes a short market price fair rather than value. The minor premiership (first on the ladder, the McClelland Trophy) is effectively decided by percentage and points buffer, which is why the simulation is so lopsided at the top. Remember: minor premiership and the actual flag are different markets - finals are a separate, higher-variance tournament our home-and-away model does not simulate.
Top 8 / finals qualification
This is where the futures value lives, because the bubble is genuinely live: Melbourne, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs are the teams our simulation has between 20% and 80% to play finals. When a bookmaker's "to make the 8" price implies a very different number to the model's, that gap is your edge - de-vig the market below and compare.
Wooden spoon
The model's spoon favourite is Essendon at 55.2%. Spoon markets are short on the obvious bottom side and the value (if any) is in the second-favourite, so always check the run home and the percentage gap before taking a cramped price.
De-vig tool: what futures odds really imply
Enter the decimal odds for the contenders in any market. The tool strips the bookmaker's margin and shows each outcome's true implied probability - then compare against the model's simulated chances above.
Three rules for betting AFL futures
1. De-vig before you compare. AFL futures markets carry 15-40% total margin. A team at $5.00 in a 130% market is really a 15% chance, not 20%.
2. Price the dead money. A futures bet locks your stake until September. It has to beat what weekly bets could earn from the same bankroll.
3. Bet the number, not the narrative. Mid-season storylines get priced in within days. The durable signals - percentage, schedule strength, injuries - are what the model weights.