NRL Predictions 2026 — Machine Learning Win Probabilities

● Live Model — Round 8 2026

NRL Predictions 2026

ML-powered match outcome predictions using 53 statistical features, live weather, and 5-game pattern recognition — updated each week.

62.1% 2025 accuracy
53 input features
8 games modelled
+8.3% vs coin flip

Round 8 Predictions

Updated: Thursday 23 April 2026
📍 Suncorp Stadium — Fri 7:50pm High confidence
Broncos
6W–1L · Home
W W W W W
vs
Titans
2W–5L · Away
L L W L L
Model pick Brisbane Broncos 78%
📍 BlueBet Stadium — Sat 3:00pm High confidence
Panthers
6W–1L · Home
W W W W W
vs
Raiders
3W–4L · Away
L W L W L
Model pick Penrith Panthers 83%
📍 Allianz Stadium — Sat 5:30pm Medium confidence
Roosters
5W–2L · Home
W W L W W
vs
Storm
4W–3L · Away
L W W L W
Model pick Sydney Roosters 68%
📍 Go Media Stadium — Sat 7:35pm Medium confidence
Warriors
4W–3L · Home
W L W L W
vs
Bulldogs
3W–4L · Away
L L W L W
Model pick New Zealand Warriors 69%
📍 4 Pines Park — Sun 2:00pm Medium confidence
Sea Eagles
5W–2L · Home
W W L W W
vs
Knights
2W–5L · Away
L L W L L
Model pick Manly Sea Eagles 72%
📍 Campbelltown Stadium — Sun 4:05pm Low confidence
Wests Tigers
2W–5L · Home
L W L L L
vs
Sharks
3W–4L · Away
W L W L L
Model pick Cronulla Sharks 63%
📍 Qld Country Bank Stadium — Sun 6:10pm Low confidence
Cowboys
3W–4L · Home
L W L W L
vs
Eels
3W–4L · Away
W L L W L
Model pick North Queensland Cowboys 60%
📍 Accor Stadium — Mon 7:35pm Coin flip
Rabbitohs
3W–4L · Home
L W L L W
vs
Dragons
3W–4L · Away
W L W L L
Model pick South Sydney Rabbitohs 55%

2026 Season Prediction Accuracy

49/79
Correct (all games)
62.0%
Overall accuracy
87%
High-conf accuracy
68%
Med-conf accuracy
52%
Low-conf accuracy
7
Rounds complete

Round-by-Round Prediction Log

Round Game Model Pick Confidence Prob % Result Correct?
R7 Broncos vs Raiders Broncos High 76% W 24–12 ✓ Yes
R7 Panthers vs Storm Panthers High 81% W 30–18 ✓ Yes
R7 Sea Eagles vs Tigers Sea Eagles Med 70% W 22–16 ✓ Yes
R7 Warriors vs Bulldogs Warriors Med 66% W 18–14 ✓ Yes
R7 Cowboys vs Eels Cowboys Low 58% L 10–22 ✗ No
R7 Rabbitohs vs Sharks Rabbitohs Flip 54% L 12–14 ✗ No
R7 Knights vs Dragons Knights Low 61% W 20–18 ✓ Yes
R7 Roosters vs Raiders Roosters Med 67% W 28–10 ✓ Yes
R8 Predictions above — results updated after games play

How Our NRL Predictions Are Generated

Every prediction uses an XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble (60/40 weighting) trained on 10 seasons of NRL data. The model processes 53 input features per game before producing a win probability for each team.

Home advantage factor 5-game form streaks Points differential (season avg) Head-to-head record (5 years) Rest days between games Live weather conditions Venue scoring patterns Winning/losing streak momentum Attack vs defence rank matchup
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