● Live Model — Round 8 2026
NRL Predictions 2026
ML-powered match outcome predictions using 53 statistical features, live weather, and 5-game pattern recognition — updated each week.
62.1%
2025 accuracy
53
input features
8
games modelled
+8.3%
vs coin flip
Round 8 Predictions
📍 Suncorp Stadium — Fri 7:50pm
High confidence
Broncos
6W–1L · Home
W
W
W
W
W
vs
Titans
2W–5L · Away
L
L
W
L
L
Model pick
Brisbane Broncos
78%
📍 BlueBet Stadium — Sat 3:00pm
High confidence
Panthers
6W–1L · Home
W
W
W
W
W
vs
Raiders
3W–4L · Away
L
W
L
W
L
Model pick
Penrith Panthers
83%
📍 Allianz Stadium — Sat 5:30pm
Medium confidence
Roosters
5W–2L · Home
W
W
L
W
W
vs
Storm
4W–3L · Away
L
W
W
L
W
Model pick
Sydney Roosters
68%
📍 Go Media Stadium — Sat 7:35pm
Medium confidence
Warriors
4W–3L · Home
W
L
W
L
W
vs
Bulldogs
3W–4L · Away
L
L
W
L
W
Model pick
New Zealand Warriors
69%
📍 4 Pines Park — Sun 2:00pm
Medium confidence
Sea Eagles
5W–2L · Home
W
W
L
W
W
vs
Knights
2W–5L · Away
L
L
W
L
L
Model pick
Manly Sea Eagles
72%
📍 Campbelltown Stadium — Sun 4:05pm
Low confidence
Wests Tigers
2W–5L · Home
L
W
L
L
L
vs
Sharks
3W–4L · Away
W
L
W
L
L
Model pick
Cronulla Sharks
63%
📍 Qld Country Bank Stadium — Sun 6:10pm
Low confidence
Cowboys
3W–4L · Home
L
W
L
W
L
vs
Eels
3W–4L · Away
W
L
L
W
L
Model pick
North Queensland Cowboys
60%
📍 Accor Stadium — Mon 7:35pm
Coin flip
Rabbitohs
3W–4L · Home
L
W
L
L
W
vs
Dragons
3W–4L · Away
W
L
W
L
L
Model pick
South Sydney Rabbitohs
55%
2026 Season Prediction Accuracy
49/79
Correct (all games)
62.0%
Overall accuracy
87%
High-conf accuracy
68%
Med-conf accuracy
52%
Low-conf accuracy
7
Rounds complete
Round-by-Round Prediction Log
| Round | Game | Model Pick | Confidence | Prob % | Result | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R7 | Broncos vs Raiders | Broncos | High | 76% | W 24–12 | ✓ Yes |
| R7 | Panthers vs Storm | Panthers | High | 81% | W 30–18 | ✓ Yes |
| R7 | Sea Eagles vs Tigers | Sea Eagles | Med | 70% | W 22–16 | ✓ Yes |
| R7 | Warriors vs Bulldogs | Warriors | Med | 66% | W 18–14 | ✓ Yes |
| R7 | Cowboys vs Eels | Cowboys | Low | 58% | L 10–22 | ✗ No |
| R7 | Rabbitohs vs Sharks | Rabbitohs | Flip | 54% | L 12–14 | ✗ No |
| R7 | Knights vs Dragons | Knights | Low | 61% | W 20–18 | ✓ Yes |
| R7 | Roosters vs Raiders | Roosters | Med | 67% | W 28–10 | ✓ Yes |
| R8 | Predictions above — results updated after games play | |||||
How Our NRL Predictions Are Generated
Every prediction uses an XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble (60/40 weighting) trained on 10 seasons of NRL data. The model processes 53 input features per game before producing a win probability for each team.
Home advantage factor
5-game form streaks
Points differential (season avg)
Head-to-head record (5 years)
Rest days between games
Live weather conditions
Venue scoring patterns
Winning/losing streak momentum
Attack vs defence rank matchup
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