NSW reclaimed the shield 2-1 in 2026. Full results, venue history and the betting angles that shaped the series - plus what carries into Origin 2027.
State of Origin 2026 Results
NSW won the 2026 series 2-1, taking Game 1 with a record comeback at Accor and sealing it 30-12 in the Brisbane decider. Queensland's win came at the MCG in Game 2.
Recent Series Results
Each side has won 4 of the last 8 series since 2019. NSW's four series wins (2019, 2021, 2024, 2026) all came in years they took Game 1.
| Year | NSW | QLD | Series result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NSW 2 | QLD 1 | NSW won series |
| 2025 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2024 | NSW 2 | QLD 1 | NSW won series |
| 2023 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2022 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2021 | NSW 2 | QLD 1 | NSW won series |
| 2020 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2019 | NSW 2 | QLD 1 | NSW won series |
Game 1 Venue: What Accor Stadium Tells Us
Game 1 in 2026 was at Sydney's Accor Stadium, where NSW ended Queensland's recent dominance with a 22-20 comeback. The longer Accor Origin record still splits sharply by year:
| Year | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Game 1 | Blues 22 - Maroons 20 | NSW |
| 2025 | Game 3 | Blues 12 - Maroons 24 | QLD |
| 2024 | Game 1 | Blues 10 - Maroons 38 | QLD |
| 2023 | Game 3 | Blues 24 - Maroons 10 | NSW |
| 2022 | Game 1 | Blues 10 - Maroons 16 | QLD |
| 2020 | Game 2 | Blues 34 - Maroons 10 | NSW |
Queensland had won the previous two Accor Origin fixtures by an average of 20 points before NSW turned it around in 2026. Home advantage alone has been a weak Origin signal - weigh recent venue form instead.
Game 2 Venue: MCG Returns
Game 2 in 2026 was at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, where Queensland levelled the series with a 44-24 win. The previous MCG Origin was 2024 Game 2 - NSW won 38-18. Big crowds, fast surface; MCG Origins reward the side with the better forward pack and quicker outside backs.
Best Betting Markets for State of Origin
1. Head-to-head (H2H)
Simplest, most efficient market. Recent series have been tight - 2025 was decided by 4 points across 3 games - so H2H pricing rarely offers value unless one side is reset by injury news close to kickoff.
2. Line / handicap (margin)
Origin lines typically sit between 2.5 and 7.5 points. Backing the underdog +6.5 has historically beaten the closing line ~55% of the time since 2019 - Origins are tight, scrappy affairs where forecast blowouts rarely materialise.
3. First try scorer
Highest-value novelty market for Origin. Backs/wingers attract the longest prices (often $7-$15) but score most first tries in Origin's territorial battle. Avoid forwards in this market - they score less than 1 in 6 first tries in the modern Origin era.
4. Total match points (over/under)
Lines usually set at 36.5-40.5 points. Origins played in cool/wet conditions trend under; dry tracks at the MCG and Accor trend over. Game 1 at Accor in late May historically averages 34 points.
How Our AI Model Applies to Origin
Our model is trained on club-level NRL data, so we don't publish a raw probability for Origin matches - the player pools are different. But the model's underlying inputs (forward pack dominance, halves combinations, recent venue form) translate directly. Each game week we publish a written breakdown using the same signals our club model uses, with confidence framed as a range rather than a single probability.
How the 2026 series played out
NSW won 2-1. Read our game-by-game breakdowns - venue history, key matchups, and how each tip graded.
Read the Game 3 decider recap →Where to Bet on State of Origin 2026
All major AU bookmakers offer expanded Origin markets - typically 100+ markets per game including same-game multis. See our bookmaker reviews for sign-up offers and current ratings.
- Sportsbet - biggest range of Origin novelty markets
- TAB - best for SGM with player props
- Ladbrokes - strong promotions during Origin window
- Neds - competitive H2H pricing
Frequently Asked Questions
When was State of Origin 2026?
The 2026 series ran across three Wednesdays: 27 May at Accor Stadium (Sydney), 17 June at the MCG (Melbourne) and 8 July at Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane). Origin 2027 dates are not yet confirmed.
Who won the 2025 State of Origin series?
Queensland won the 2025 series 2-1, with QLD winning Game 1 (Suncorp), Game 2 (Optus Stadium) and dropping Game 3 at Accor.
Who won State of Origin 2026?
New South Wales won the 2026 series 2-1. The Blues won Game 1 22-20 at Accor in a record comeback, Queensland took Game 2 44-24 at the MCG, and NSW clinched the decider 30-12 at Suncorp - Nathan Cleary won the Wally Lewis Medal.
Where can I bet on State of Origin 2026?
All major AU bookmakers (Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Pointsbet, Neds, Unibet, Bet365) offer State of Origin markets including head-to-head, line, total points, first try scorer, Man of the Match and same-game multis.