Our AI model has run the numbers for AFL 2026 Round 22. It draws on 1,547 matches back to 2019, reading recent form, head-to-head records, home-ground advantage, streaks, 5-game momentum patterns and points differential for all 9 games.
Honest model accuracy: 69.0% weighted across walk-forward test seasons - see the full tracker, graded out-of-sample so the numbers can't be inflated.
Round 22 Predictions
📍 Docklands
High
Western Bulldogs
60% wins in 2026
vs
North Melbourne
40% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Western Bulldogs
(81% probability)
Western Bulldogs last 5
LWWWL
North Melbourne last 5
LLLLL
▼ North Melbourne: 5-game losing streak
▲ Western Bulldogs: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Gabba
Low
Brisbane Lions
65% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Brisbane Lions
(63% probability)
Brisbane Lions last 5
WWWWL
▲ Hawthorn: 4-game win streak
📍 M.C.G.
Low
Melbourne
65% wins in 2026
vs
Fremantle
90% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Fremantle
(62% probability)
▲ Fremantle: 4-game win streak
📍 S.C.G.
Medium
vs
Port Adelaide
30% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Sydney
(65% probability)
Port Adelaide last 5
WLLLL
▼ Port Adelaide: 4-game losing streak
▲ Sydney: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
▲ Sydney: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Kardinia Park
High
AI Pick
Geelong
(95% probability)
▲ Geelong: 3-game win streak
▲ Geelong: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
▲ Geelong: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Adelaide Oval
High
AI Pick
Adelaide
(93% probability)
▲ Adelaide: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Manuka Oval
High
Greater Western Sydney
45% wins in 2026
vs
Gold Coast
35% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Greater Western Sydney
(90% probability)
Greater Western Sydney last 5
WWLLW
▼ Gold Coast: 10-game losing streak
▲ Greater Western Sydney: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Perth Stadium
High
West Coast
20% wins in 2026
vs
Collingwood
55% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Collingwood
(75% probability)
▼ West Coast: 8-game losing streak
▲ Collingwood: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Docklands
Low
AI Pick
Carlton
(63% probability)
▲ Carlton: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
Round 22 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne | Western Bulldogs | 81% | High |
| Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions | 63% | Low |
| Melbourne vs Fremantle | Fremantle | 62% | Low |
| Sydney vs Port Adelaide | Sydney | 65% | Medium |
| Geelong vs Essendon | Geelong | 95% | High |
| Adelaide vs Richmond | Adelaide | 93% | High |
| Greater Western Sydney vs Gold Coast | Greater Western Sydney | 90% | High |
| West Coast vs Collingwood | Collingwood | 75% | High |
| St Kilda vs Carlton | Carlton | 63% | Low |
Tools for This Round
Responsible gambling: These predictions are generated by an AI model for information and entertainment only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly - if gambling is causing harm, call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Predictions by the TippingEdge AFL model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 69.0% walk-forward accuracy). Uses 2026 data up to Round 21.
