Our AI model has run the numbers for AFL 2026 Round 24. It draws on 1,547 matches back to 2019, reading recent form, head-to-head records, home-ground advantage, streaks, 5-game momentum patterns and points differential for all 9 games.
Honest model accuracy: 69.0% weighted across walk-forward test seasons - see the full tracker, graded out-of-sample so the numbers can't be inflated.
Round 24 Predictions
📍 Docklands
High
vs
Gold Coast
36% wins in 2026
AI Pick
St Kilda
(75% probability)
📍 M.C.G.
Low
Collingwood
55% wins in 2026
vs
Brisbane Lions
68% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Brisbane Lions
(58% probability)
Brisbane Lions last 5
WWLWW
📍 Docklands
Low
vs
Fremantle
86% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Fremantle
(62% probability)
📍 M.C.G.
Low
Melbourne
68% wins in 2026
vs
Western Bulldogs
55% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Melbourne
(63% probability)
Western Bulldogs last 5
WWLLL
▲ Melbourne: 3-game win streak
▼ Western Bulldogs: 3-game losing streak
⚠ Western Bulldogs: Collapse pattern - was winning, now sliding
▲ Melbourne: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Kardinia Park
High
AI Pick
Geelong
(96% probability)
▲ Geelong: 5-game win streak
▲ Geelong: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Adelaide Oval
Medium
vs
Greater Western Sydney
45% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Adelaide
(73% probability)
Greater Western Sydney last 5
LLWLW
📍 Docklands
Low
vs
Port Adelaide
27% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Port Adelaide
(59% probability)
Port Adelaide last 5
LLLLL
▼ Essendon: 4-game losing streak
▼ Port Adelaide: 6-game losing streak
📍 S.C.G.
High
vs
North Melbourne
41% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Sydney
(93% probability)
North Melbourne last 5
LLLWL
▲ Sydney: 4-game win streak
▲ Sydney: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Perth Stadium
High
West Coast
18% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Hawthorn
(88% probability)
▼ West Coast: 10-game losing streak
⚠ Hawthorn: Collapse pattern - was winning, now sliding
▲ Hawthorn: Better recent form (last 5)
Round 24 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| St Kilda vs Gold Coast | St Kilda | 75% | High |
| Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions | 58% | Low |
| Carlton vs Fremantle | Fremantle | 62% | Low |
| Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs | Melbourne | 63% | Low |
| Geelong vs Richmond | Geelong | 96% | High |
| Adelaide vs Greater Western Sydney | Adelaide | 73% | Medium |
| Essendon vs Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide | 59% | Low |
| Sydney vs North Melbourne | Sydney | 93% | High |
| West Coast vs Hawthorn | Hawthorn | 88% | High |
Tools for This Round
Responsible gambling: These predictions are generated by an AI model for information and entertainment only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly - if gambling is causing harm, call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Predictions by the TippingEdge AFL model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 69.0% walk-forward accuracy). Uses 2026 data up to Round 23.
