Our AI model has run the numbers for AFL 2026 Round 23. It draws on 1,547 matches back to 2019, reading recent form, head-to-head records, home-ground advantage, streaks, 5-game momentum patterns and points differential for all 9 games.
Honest model accuracy: 69.0% weighted across walk-forward test seasons - see the full tracker, graded out-of-sample so the numbers can't be inflated.
Round 23 Predictions
📍 Perth Stadium
Low
Fremantle
86% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Fremantle
(55% probability)
📍 M.C.G.
High
AI Pick
St Kilda
(87% probability)
⚠ St Kilda: Collapse pattern - was winning, now sliding
📍 Docklands
High
North Melbourne
43% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Geelong
(77% probability)
North Melbourne last 5
LLLLW
▲ Geelong: 4-game win streak
▲ Geelong: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Gabba
High
Brisbane Lions
67% wins in 2026
vs
Gold Coast
38% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Brisbane Lions
(94% probability)
Brisbane Lions last 5
WWWLW
▲ Brisbane Lions: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 M.C.G.
Coin flip
vs
Collingwood
57% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Collingwood
(51% probability)
📍 Adelaide Oval
Medium
Port Adelaide
29% wins in 2026
vs
Melbourne
67% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Melbourne
(71% probability)
Port Adelaide last 5
LLLLL
▼ Port Adelaide: 5-game losing streak
▲ Melbourne: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Sydney Showground
High
Greater Western Sydney
43% wins in 2026
vs
West Coast
19% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Greater Western Sydney
(87% probability)
Greater Western Sydney last 5
WLLWL
▼ West Coast: 9-game losing streak
▲ Greater Western Sydney: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Docklands
Low
Western Bulldogs
57% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Carlton
(57% probability)
Western Bulldogs last 5
WWWLL
▲ Carlton: 3-game win streak
▲ Carlton: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
⚠ Western Bulldogs: Collapse pattern - was winning, now sliding
📍 M.C.G.
High
AI Pick
Sydney
(91% probability)
▲ Sydney: 3-game win streak
▼ Essendon: 3-game losing streak
▲ Sydney: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
▲ Sydney: Better recent form (last 5)
Round 23 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Fremantle vs Adelaide | Fremantle | 55% | Low |
| Richmond vs St Kilda | St Kilda | 87% | High |
| North Melbourne vs Geelong | Geelong | 77% | High |
| Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast | Brisbane Lions | 94% | High |
| Hawthorn vs Collingwood | Collingwood | 51% | Coin flip |
| Port Adelaide vs Melbourne | Melbourne | 71% | Medium |
| Greater Western Sydney vs West Coast | Greater Western Sydney | 87% | High |
| Western Bulldogs vs Carlton | Carlton | 57% | Low |
| Essendon vs Sydney | Sydney | 91% | High |
Tools for This Round
Responsible gambling: These predictions are generated by an AI model for information and entertainment only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly - if gambling is causing harm, call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Predictions by the TippingEdge AFL model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 69.0% walk-forward accuracy). Uses 2026 data up to Round 22.
