Our AI model has crunched the numbers for NRL 2026 Round 17 and produced its weekly predictions. The model draws on 1,489+ historical matches (2019–2026), incorporating recent form, head-to-head records, streak analysis, 5-game pattern recognition, and live weather data for every venue.
Current model accuracy: 74.2% across 2026 - see the full results tracker.
Round 17 Predictions
📍 CommBank Stadium
MEDIUM
⛅ 14°C · Wind 2 km/h · Rain 0.7mm · Humidity 81%
EELEels
36% wins this season
vs
RABRabbitohs
54% wins this season
AI Pick
Rabbitohs
(74% probability)
Eels last 5
W L L L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Rabbitohs last 5
W L L L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
📍 Cbus Super Stadium
LOW
⛅ 15°C · Wind 12 km/h · Rain 1.9mm · Humidity 87%
TITTitans
29% wins this season
vs
BULBulldogs
43% wins this season
AI Pick
Titans
(61% probability)
Titans last 5
L L W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Bulldogs last 5
L W L W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Bulldogs: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
📍 Suncorp Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 16°C · Wind 9 km/h · Rain 0.5mm · Humidity 80%
BROBroncos
36% wins this season
vs
ROORoosters
64% wins this season
AI Pick
Roosters
(78% probability)
Broncos last 5
L L L L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 37%
Roosters last 5
L L W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▼ Broncos: 6-game losing streak (hist. win next: 30%)
▲ Roosters: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Suncorp Stadium
LOW
⛅ 16°C · Wind 9 km/h · Rain 1.1mm · Humidity 84%
DOLDolphins
64% wins this season
vs
WARWarriors
71% wins this season
AI Pick
Dolphins
(60% probability)
Dolphins last 5
W W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 64%
Warriors last 5
W W L L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Dolphins: 7-game win streak (hist. continuation: 50%)
▲ Dolphins: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Queensland Country Bank Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 23°C · Wind 11 km/h · Rain 0.9mm · Humidity 69%
COWCowboys
53% wins this season
vs
PANPanthers
86% wins this season
AI Pick
Panthers
(76% probability)
Cowboys last 5
W W L L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Panthers last 5
W W W W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 59%
▼ Cowboys: 3-game losing streak (hist. win next: 43%)
⚠ Cowboys: Collapse pattern - was winning, now on a losing run
▲ Panthers: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 4 Pines Park
HIGH
⛅ 13°C · Wind 4 km/h · Rain 0.9mm · Humidity 82%
SEASea Eagles
57% wins this season
vs
STOStorm
47% wins this season
AI Pick
Sea Eagles
(80% probability)
Sea Eagles last 5
W W L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 62%
Storm last 5
W L W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Storm: 3-game win streak (hist. continuation: 74%)
▲ Storm: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 GIO Stadium
HIGH
❄️ 11°C · Wind 7 km/h · Rain 0.5mm · Humidity 78%
RAIRaiders
33% wins this season
vs
DRADragons
7% wins this season
AI Pick
Raiders
(86% probability)
Raiders last 5
L W L L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 39%
Dragons last 5
L L W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 33%
⛅ Cold conditions - 11°C
▼ Raiders: 3-game losing streak (hist. win next: 60%)
📍 McDonald Jones Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 16°C · Wind 14 km/h · Rain 0.4mm · Humidity 78%
KNIKnights
64% wins this season
vs
WESWests Tigers
50% wins this season
AI Pick
Knights
(81% probability)
Knights last 5
W W W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 59%
Wests Tigers last 5
L W L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Knights: Better recent form (last 5 games)
Round 17 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Eels vs Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs | 74% | MEDIUM |
| Titans vs Bulldogs | Titans | 61% | LOW |
| Broncos vs Roosters | Roosters | 78% | HIGH |
| Dolphins vs Warriors | Dolphins | 60% | LOW |
| Cowboys vs Panthers | Panthers | 76% | HIGH |
| Sea Eagles vs Storm | Sea Eagles | 80% | HIGH |
| Raiders vs Dragons | Raiders | 86% | HIGH |
| Knights vs Wests Tigers | Knights | 81% | HIGH |
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Predictions generated by the TippingEdge AI model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 74.2% accuracy).
Model uses 2026 season data up to Round 16.