Our AI model has crunched the numbers for NRL 2026 Round 16 and produced its weekly predictions. The model draws on 1,489+ historical matches (2019–2026), incorporating recent form, head-to-head records, streak analysis, 5-game pattern recognition, and live weather data for every venue.
Current model accuracy: 76.1% across 2026 — see the full results tracker.
Round 16 Predictions
📍 McDonald Jones Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 17°C · Wind 19 km/h · Humidity 77%
KNIKnights
62% wins this season
vs
DRADragons
8% wins this season
AI Pick
Knights
(77% probability)
Knights last 5
W W W W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 59%
Dragons last 5
L L L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Knights: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Campbelltown Sports Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 13°C · Wind 6 km/h · Humidity 74%
WESWests Tigers
54% wins this season
vs
DOLDolphins
62% wins this season
AI Pick
Dolphins
(76% probability)
Wests Tigers last 5
L L W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Dolphins last 5
W W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 64%
▲ Dolphins: 6-game win streak (hist. continuation: 50%)
▲ Dolphins: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Cbus Super Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 19°C · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 84%
TITTitans
23% wins this season
vs
PANPanthers
92% wins this season
AI Pick
Panthers
(78% probability)
Titans last 5
L L L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Panthers last 5
W W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 64%
▲ Panthers: 7-game win streak (hist. continuation: 78%)
▲ Panthers: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Accor Stadium
MEDIUM
⛅ 14°C · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 65%
BULBulldogs
38% wins this season
vs
SEASea Eagles
62% wins this season
AI Pick
Sea Eagles
(74% probability)
Bulldogs last 5
L L W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Sea Eagles last 5
W W W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 59%
▲ Sea Eagles: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 One NZ Stadium
HIGH
⛅ 22°C · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 60%
WARWarriors
69% wins this season
vs
COWCowboys
57% wins this season
AI Pick
Warriors
(84% probability)
Warriors last 5
W W W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Cowboys last 5
L W W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 40%
⚠ Warriors: Collapse pattern — was winning, now on a losing run
⚠ Cowboys: Collapse pattern — was winning, now on a losing run
📍 AAMI Park
MEDIUM
❄️ 11°C · Wind 8 km/h · Rain 1.0mm · Humidity 84%
STOStorm
43% wins this season
vs
RAIRaiders
36% wins this season
AI Pick
Storm
(69% probability)
Storm last 5
W W L W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 59%
Raiders last 5
L L W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 33%
⛅ Cold conditions — 11°C
▲ Storm: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Allianz Stadium
COIN FLIP
⛅ 14°C · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 74%
ROORoosters
62% wins this season
vs
SHASharks
62% wins this season
AI Pick
Sharks
(54% probability)
Roosters last 5
W L L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 37%
Sharks last 5
L W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 65%
▲ Sharks: 4-game win streak (hist. continuation: 47%)
▲ Sharks: Better recent form (last 5 games)
Round 16 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Knights vs Dragons | Knights | 77% | HIGH |
| Wests Tigers vs Dolphins | Dolphins | 76% | HIGH |
| Titans vs Panthers | Panthers | 78% | HIGH |
| Bulldogs vs Sea Eagles | Sea Eagles | 74% | MEDIUM |
| Warriors vs Cowboys | Warriors | 84% | HIGH |
| Storm vs Raiders | Storm | 69% | MEDIUM |
| Roosters vs Sharks | Sharks | 54% | COIN FLIP |
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Responsible Gambling: These predictions are generated by an AI model and are for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Gamble responsibly. If gambling is causing you harm, call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858.
Predictions generated by the TippingEdge AI model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 76.1% accuracy).
Model uses 2026 season data up to Round 15.
