Our AI model has run the numbers for AFL 2026 Round 14. It draws on 1,547 matches back to 2019, reading recent form, head-to-head records, home-ground advantage, streaks, 5-game momentum patterns and points differential for all 5 games.
Honest model accuracy: 69.0% weighted across walk-forward test seasons - see the full tracker, graded out-of-sample so the numbers can't be inflated.
Round 14 Predictions
📍 M.C.G.
High
Melbourne
62% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Melbourne
(87% probability)
▼ Essendon: 8-game losing streak
▲ Melbourne: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Perth Stadium
Low
North Melbourne
42% wins in 2026
vs
West Coast
31% wins in 2026
AI Pick
North Melbourne
(57% probability)
North Melbourne last 5
LLLWL
📍 Adelaide Oval
Medium
Port Adelaide
33% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Sydney
(66% probability)
Port Adelaide last 5
LLLLW
▲ Sydney: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Bellerive Oval
High
vs
Brisbane Lions
54% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Brisbane Lions
(84% probability)
Brisbane Lions last 5
WLLLW
📍 Docklands
High
vs
Greater Western Sydney
50% wins in 2026
AI Pick
St Kilda
(77% probability)
Greater Western Sydney last 5
LWLWW
▼ St Kilda: 3-game losing streak
▲ Greater Western Sydney: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
▲ Greater Western Sydney: Better recent form (last 5)
Round 14 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Melbourne vs Essendon | Melbourne | 87% | High |
| North Melbourne vs West Coast | North Melbourne | 57% | Low |
| Port Adelaide vs Sydney | Sydney | 66% | Medium |
| Richmond vs Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions | 84% | High |
| St Kilda vs Greater Western Sydney | St Kilda | 77% | High |
Tools for This Round
Responsible gambling: These predictions are generated by an AI model for information and entertainment only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly - if gambling is causing harm, call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Predictions by the TippingEdge AFL model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 69.0% walk-forward accuracy). Uses 2026 data up to Round 13.
