AFL Ladder Predictions 2026: The Model's Projected Final Table
Not a pundit's guess - a Monte Carlo simulation. We ran the rest of the season 20,000 times through our 69.0%-accurate model to project where every team finishes.
Projected final ladder (after Round 14)
Teams are ordered by their average finishing position across 20,000 simulations. "Move" is the projected shift from their current ladder spot; projected points is the model's expected season total. Green = projected top 8, red = projected spoon zone.
| Proj # | Team | Now | Move | Proj Pts | Top 8 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle | 1 | - | 79.6 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Sydney | 2 | - | 70.3 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Geelong | 3 | - | 61.1 | 99.6% |
| 4 | Hawthorn | 4 | - | 60.7 | 98.2% |
| 5 | Adelaide | 5 | - | 58.5 | 97.5% |
| 6 | Brisbane Lions | 9 | ▲3 | 54.0 | 86.5% |
| 7 | Melbourne | 6 | ▼1 | 52.8 | 74.8% |
| 8 | Gold Coast | 8 | - | 46.9 | 45.8% |
| 9 | Greater Western Sydney | 10 | ▲1 | 46.1 | 35.1% |
| 10 | Western Bulldogs | 7 | ▼3 | 46.1 | 20.4% |
| 11 | St Kilda | 12 | ▲1 | 45.2 | 21.2% |
| 12 | Collingwood | 11 | ▼1 | 41.6 | 9.8% |
| 13 | Carlton | 13 | - | 42.8 | 9.7% |
| 14 | Port Adelaide | 15 | ▲1 | 35.5 | 1.1% |
| 15 | North Melbourne | 14 | ▼1 | 33.2 | 0.2% |
| 16 | West Coast | 16 | - | 27.0 | 0.0% |
| 17 | Richmond | 17 | - | 14.8 | 0.0% |
| 18 | Essendon | 18 | - | 11.9 | 0.0% |
How the projection works
For every remaining home-and-away game, the model produces a win probability from 53 features - form, head-to-head, home-ground advantage (venue-corrected for relocated games), rest, streaks and momentum patterns. We then simulate each game as a weighted coin flip and tally the ladder, 20,000 times over. The result is a full distribution of outcomes, not a single guess - which is why we can quote each team's exact top-8 and spoon probability on the futures page.
It updates automatically as results come in. The model's weekly game-by-game accuracy is tracked, out-of-sample, on the accuracy page - currently 69.0% walk-forward.