NSW Blues 2026: State of Origin Form & Analysis

★ NSW Blues — Origin 2026

NSW Blues 2026: State of Origin Form & Analysis

Recent record, venue history and what to watch for in the three-game series.

NSW Origin Record Since 2019

10/21
Games won
48%
Win rate
22.1
Points for/game
16.8
Points against/game

NSW have won three of the last seven series (2019, 2021, 2024). They averaged 22.1 points scored and 16.8 conceded across 21 Origin matches since 2019 — the strongest attacking side on paper, despite the series ledger reading 4-3 in QLD's favour.

Last 5 Origin Results

GameVenueH/AScoreResult
2024 Game 2MCGHome38-18W
2024 Game 3SuncorpAway14-4W
2025 Game 1SuncorpAway18-6W
2025 Game 2Optus StadiumAway24-26L
2025 Game 3AccorHome12-24L

NSW won 3 of the last 5 individual games but dropped the 2025 series 1-2 — losing Games 2 and 3 after a strong Game 1 in Brisbane.

The 2026 challenge: NSW open the series at Accor Stadium where they've lost the last 2 Origins by a combined 40 points (2022 by 6, 2024 by 28). Their last Accor win was 2023 Game 3 — and that was a series-ending dead rubber.

Venue Record: NSW at Accor (Game 1 2026)

Despite Accor being labelled NSW's "home", the Blues have struggled there in recent series:

  • 2020 Game 2: W 34-10 (during the Covid-rescheduled series)
  • 2022 Game 1: L 10-16
  • 2023 Game 3: W 24-10 (dead rubber)
  • 2024 Game 1: L 10-38
  • 2025 Game 3: L 12-24 (dead rubber after losing series)

Live-series record at Accor: 1W-2L (the 2020 win came mid-series; both 2022 and 2024 Game 1 losses set up series defeats).

Venue Record: NSW at MCG (Game 2 2026)

NSW's last Origin at the MCG was 2024 Game 2 — they won 38-18 by 20 points. The MCG's wide playing surface has historically favoured NSW's expansive attack over QLD's territorial style.

What to Watch for in 2026

1. The halves pairing

Every NSW series win since 2019 has featured a settled halves combination across all three games. Series losses have featured at least one half change between Games 1 and 3.

2. Starting prop rotation

NSW's edge in 2024 was the back-to-back impact of their bench middles in the 50-60 minute window. When NSW wins, their bench middles average 8 more run metres than QLD's. When NSW loses, the gap reverses.

3. Fullback in transition

NSW have used multiple fullbacks across the last 7 series. The fullback's read on broken-field defence has been the leading single-game performance differentiator in 6 of NSW's 10 wins since 2019.

Squad Announcement

The 2026 NSW Blues squad is expected to be announced on Sunday 24 May 2026 — three days before Game 1. We'll update this page with squad analysis once the team is named. Subscribe to our weekly tips for instant updates.

Where NSW's Origin Players Come From

NSW Origin selectors traditionally pull from clubs based in NSW — primarily the Roosters, Panthers, Sea Eagles, Eels, Bulldogs, Sharks, Dragons, Knights, Rabbitohs and Wests Tigers. View the current form of likely contributors:

See our Game 1 prediction

Full breakdown of NSW vs QLD Game 1 with venue history and our recommended bets.

Read the Game 1 preview →
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