Our AI model has crunched the numbers for NRL 2026 Round 21 and produced its weekly predictions. The model draws on 1,489+ historical matches (2019–2026), incorporating recent form, head-to-head records, streak analysis, 5-game pattern recognition, and live weather data for every venue.
Current model accuracy: 73.0% across 2026 - see the full results tracker.
Round 21 Predictions
📍 CommBank Stadium
MEDIUM
⛅ 14°C · Wind 14 km/h · Humidity 55%
EELEels
35% wins this season
vs
PANPanthers
76% wins this season
AI Pick
Panthers
(67% probability)
Eels last 5
L W L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Panthers last 5
W L L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 37%
📍 McDonald Jones Stadium
LOW
❄️ 12°C · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 61%
KNIKnights
61% wins this season
vs
ROORoosters
71% wins this season
AI Pick
Roosters
(64% probability)
Knights last 5
W W W L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Roosters last 5
L W W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 65%
⛅ Cold conditions - 12°C
▲ Roosters: 4-game win streak (hist. continuation: 61%)
⚠ Knights: Collapse pattern - was winning, now on a losing run
▲ Roosters: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Accor Stadium
LOW
❄️ 11°C · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 68%
RABRabbitohs
53% wins this season
vs
STOStorm
44% wins this season
AI Pick
Rabbitohs
(57% probability)
Rabbitohs last 5
W W L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 62%
Storm last 5
W W L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 62%
⛅ Cold conditions - 11°C
📍 GIO Stadium
HIGH
❄️ 8°C · Wind 14 km/h · Humidity 84%
RAIRaiders
44% wins this season
vs
WESWests Tigers
39% wins this season
AI Pick
Raiders
(81% probability)
Raiders last 5
L L W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Wests Tigers last 5
L L L L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 37%
⛅ Cold conditions - 8°C
▲ Raiders: 3-game win streak (hist. continuation: 51%)
▼ Wests Tigers: 5-game losing streak (hist. win next: 25%)
▲ Raiders: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
▲ Raiders: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Accor Stadium
LOW
⛅ 14°C · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 66%
BULBulldogs
47% wins this season
vs
WARWarriors
71% wins this season
AI Pick
Warriors
(61% probability)
Bulldogs last 5
W W W L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 59%
Warriors last 5
L W L W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Warriors: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
▲ Bulldogs: Better recent form (last 5 games)
📍 Queensland Country Bank Stadium
COIN FLIP
⛅ 21°C · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 72%
COWCowboys
56% wins this season
vs
BROBroncos
35% wins this season
AI Pick
Cowboys
(53% probability)
Cowboys last 5
L L W W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 28%
Broncos last 5
L L L L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 42%
📍 St George Venues Jubilee Stadium
LOW
⛅ 14°C · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 65%
DRADragons
12% wins this season
vs
TITTitans
29% wins this season
AI Pick
Dragons
(64% probability)
Dragons last 5
L L L W L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
Titans last 5
L W L L W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
📍 4 Pines Park
COIN FLIP
⛅ 13°C · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 68%
SEASea Eagles
50% wins this season
vs
SHASharks
65% wins this season
AI Pick
Sharks
(51% probability)
Sea Eagles last 5
L W L L L
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 39%
Sharks last 5
W L W W W
Hist. win rate from this pattern: 50%
▲ Sharks: 3-game win streak (hist. continuation: 52%)
▼ Sea Eagles: 3-game losing streak (hist. win next: 54%)
▲ Sharks: Better recent form (last 5 games)
Round 21 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Eels vs Panthers | Panthers | 67% | MEDIUM |
| Knights vs Roosters | Roosters | 64% | LOW |
| Rabbitohs vs Storm | Rabbitohs | 57% | LOW |
| Raiders vs Wests Tigers | Raiders | 81% | HIGH |
| Bulldogs vs Warriors | Warriors | 61% | LOW |
| Cowboys vs Broncos | Cowboys | 53% | COIN FLIP |
| Dragons vs Titans | Dragons | 64% | LOW |
| Sea Eagles vs Sharks | Sharks | 51% | COIN FLIP |
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Predictions generated by the TippingEdge AI model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 73.0% accuracy).
Model uses 2026 season data up to Round 20.
