Confirmed fixtures, real venue history, and data-driven betting angles for the three-game series.
State of Origin 2026 Schedule
Three games across six weeks — Sydney first, then Melbourne, then a Brisbane decider. All three games kick off at 8:05pm AEST on a Wednesday night.
Recent Series Results
QLD have won 4 of the last 7 series since 2019. NSW's three series wins (2019, 2021, 2024) all came in years they took Game 1.
| Year | NSW | QLD | Series result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2024 | NSW 2 | QLD 1 | NSW won series |
| 2023 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2022 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2021 | NSW 2 | QLD 1 | NSW won series |
| 2020 | NSW 1 | QLD 2 | QLD won series |
| 2019 | NSW 2 | QLD 1 | NSW won series |
Game 1 Venue: What Accor Stadium Tells Us
Game 1 in 2026 is at Sydney's Accor Stadium. NSW have called it home in Origin, but recent results paint a different picture:
| Year | Game | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Game 3 | Blues 12 – Maroons 24 | QLD |
| 2024 | Game 1 | Blues 10 – Maroons 38 | QLD |
| 2023 | Game 3 | Blues 24 – Maroons 10 | NSW |
| 2022 | Game 1 | Blues 10 – Maroons 16 | QLD |
| 2020 | Game 2 | Blues 34 – Maroons 10 | NSW |
QLD have won the last 2 Accor Origin fixtures by an average of 20 points. Backing a NSW Game 1 line based on "home advantage" alone is a trap.
Game 2 Venue: MCG Returns
Game 2 is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The last Origin match at the MCG was 2024 Game 2 — NSW won 38-18. Big crowds, fast surface; recent neutral-venue Origins have favoured the side with the better forward pack.
Best Betting Markets for State of Origin
1. Head-to-head (H2H)
Simplest, most efficient market. Recent series have been tight — 2025 was decided by 4 points across 3 games — so H2H pricing rarely offers value unless one side is reset by injury news close to kickoff.
2. Line / handicap (margin)
Origin lines typically sit between 2.5 and 7.5 points. Backing the underdog +6.5 has historically beaten the closing line ~55% of the time since 2019 — Origins are tight, scrappy affairs where forecast blowouts rarely materialise.
3. First try scorer
Highest-value novelty market for Origin. Backs/wingers attract the longest prices (often $7–$15) but score most first tries in Origin's territorial battle. Avoid forwards in this market — they score less than 1 in 6 first tries in the modern Origin era.
4. Total match points (over/under)
Lines usually set at 36.5–40.5 points. Origins played in cool/wet conditions trend under; dry tracks at the MCG and Accor trend over. Game 1 at Accor in late May historically averages 34 points.
How Our AI Model Applies to Origin
Our model is trained on club-level NRL data, so we don't publish a raw probability for Origin matches — the player pools are different. But the model's underlying inputs (forward pack dominance, halves combinations, recent venue form) translate directly. Each game week we publish a written breakdown using the same signals our club model uses, with confidence framed as a range rather than a single probability.
Get our Game 1 preview
Full breakdown of Game 1 — venue history, key matchups, our recommended pick and confidence tier.
Read the Game 1 preview →Where to Bet on State of Origin 2026
All major AU bookmakers will offer expanded Origin markets — typically 100+ markets per game including same-game multis. See our bookmaker reviews for sign-up offers and current ratings.
- Sportsbet — biggest range of Origin novelty markets
- TAB — best for SGM with player props
- Ladbrokes — strong promotions during Origin window
- Neds — competitive H2H pricing
Frequently Asked Questions
When is State of Origin 2026?
Game 1 is Wednesday 27 May 2026 at Accor Stadium in Sydney (8:05pm AEST). Game 2 is Wednesday 17 June at the MCG, and Game 3 is Wednesday 8 July at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.
Who won the 2025 State of Origin series?
Queensland won the 2025 series 2-1, with QLD winning Game 1 (Suncorp), Game 2 (Optus Stadium) and dropping Game 3 at Accor.
Who is favourite to win State of Origin 2026?
Markets and recent form make QLD the slight series favourite — they've won 4 of the last 7 series (2020, 2022, 2023, 2025). NSW has home-state advantage for Games 1 and 2.
Where can I bet on State of Origin 2026?
All major AU bookmakers (Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Pointsbet, Neds, Unibet, Bet365) offer State of Origin markets including head-to-head, line, total points, first try scorer, Man of the Match and same-game multis.