📈 Live Model · Updated Weekly
NRL Premiership Odds 2026
Real-time premiership winner odds compared to our ML model's championship probabilities — with value flags where the market misprices a team's true chances.
🕑 Last updated: Thursday 23 April 2026 · After Round 7 results
2026 Premiership Odds — All 17 Teams
Market odds (best available AU bookmaker) vs TippingEdge ML model championship probability. Value = model probability exceeds implied market probability by 5%+.
| Pos. | Team | Record | Form (last 5) | Best odds | Market implied | Model prob. | Model bar | Value? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos | 6W–1L | W W W W W | $4.00 | 25.0% | 26% | 26% | — Fair |
| 2 | Penrith Panthers | 6W–1L | W W W W W | $3.50 | 28.6% | 33% | 33% | ✓ Value |
| 3 | Sydney Roosters | 5W–2L | W W L W W | $6.00 | 16.7% | 14% | 14% | — Pass |
| 4 | Manly Sea Eagles | 5W–2L | W W L W W | $8.00 | 12.5% | 10% | 10% | — Pass |
| 5 | Melbourne Storm | 4W–3L | L W W L W | $9.00 | 11.1% | 7% | 7% | — Pass |
| 6 | New Zealand Warriors | 4W–3L | W L W L W | $13.00 | 7.7% | 4% | 4% | — Pass |
| 7 | Dolphins | 4W–3L | W W L W L | $17.00 | 5.9% | 3% | 3% | — Pass |
| 8 | Cronulla Sharks | 3W–4L | W L W L L | $21.00 | 4.8% | 2% | 2% | — Pass |
| 9 | Canberra Raiders | 3W–4L | L W L W L | $26.00 | 3.8% | 1% | 1% | — Pass |
| 10 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 3W–4L | L W L L W | $29.00 | 3.4% | 1% | 1% | — Pass |
| Canterbury Bulldogs, St George Dragons, Parramatta Eels, Cowboys, Knights, Tigers, Titans: $51+ — model probability <0.5%, not shown. | ||||||||
Model's Top 3 Premiership Picks
★ Model top pick
Penrith Panthers
6W–1L · Ladder 2nd · Dynasty era
Model championship prob.
33%
Best market odds
$3.50
4 premierships in 5 years. Home final advantage. Best defence in the competition. Market implied 28.6% vs our 33% — genuine value.
Brisbane Broncos
6W–1L · Ladder 1st · Strong home record
Model championship prob.
26%
Best market odds
$4.00
Ladder leaders. Suncorp Stadium advantage in finals. Model and market roughly aligned — fair odds, not a standout value play but solid selection.
Sydney Roosters
5W–2L · Ladder 3rd · Strong bounce-back pattern
Model championship prob.
14%
Best market odds
$6.00
Third on the ladder with 5W. Market implied 16.7% slightly exceeds model's 14% — slightly overpriced. Track if they maintain top-4 form heading into July.
How to Use This Page for Betting
Premiership odds are a long-term market — the best plays happen mid-season when form is clear but odds haven't fully shortened. Here's our recommended approach:
1
Check back every 2–3 rounds. This page updates after each round with new model probabilities and market odds. Value can appear and disappear quickly after injuries or major results.2
Only bet when model probability exceeds implied market probability by 5%+. Currently that's Panthers only. We flag this in the Value column.3
Stake 1–2% of your bank maximum. Premiership futures are high-variance. A single injury can swing everything. Small positions, diversify across 2–3 teams if you want exposure.4
Check odds across multiple bookmakers. Premiership markets can vary 10–20% between books. Even a $3.50 vs $4.00 difference on the same team is meaningful on a $50 stake.
Responsible gambling: Premiership odds betting is long-horizon and high-variance. Model probabilities will change significantly as the season progresses and should not be treated as financial advice. Must be 18+ to bet in Australia. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858 (free, 24/7).