Hedge Betting Calculator
You backed it early and the odds have moved. This calculator tells you exactly how much to stake on the other side to lock in the same profit no matter what happens - and whether the bookmaker's cash out offer is actually fair.
Calculate your hedge
When hedging makes sense (and when it doesn't)
Hedging means betting the opposite side of an open bet to guarantee an outcome. It always costs expected value - you are paying a second bookmaker margin to remove variance. That can still be the right call in three situations:
1. The position is now a big share of your bankroll. A $50 futures bet that is one game from returning $2,000 is no longer a $50 decision. Locking in a four-figure profit can be worth more to you than the extra expected value of letting it ride.
2. Your original reason for the bet is gone. Key injury, team news, weather - if you would not place the original bet today, hedging out is just updating your position to match what you now believe.
3. A multi with one leg to go. The classic hedge spot. Bet the final leg's opposite side using the calculator above and the multi becomes a guaranteed payout.
Worked example
You had $100 on a team at $3.50 to win the premiership and they have reached the grand final, where their opponent is paying $2.10. Hedge stake = (100 × 3.50) ÷ 2.10 = $166.67. Whichever side wins, you collect $350: if your team wins it comes from the original bet, if they lose it comes from the hedge ($166.67 × 2.10). Total staked is $266.67, so you bank a guaranteed $83.33 profit either way. Note how the hedge gets less attractive the shorter the opposing price: against a $1.45 favourite the same position locks in only about $9.
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FAQ
What is the hedge betting formula?
Hedge stake = (original stake × original odds) ÷ current odds on the opposite side. That stake makes your total return identical whichever side wins. The calculator above also shows the equal-profit version after subtracting both stakes.
Is cash out better than hedging myself?
Usually not. Cash out offers are calculated from the live market price minus the bookmaker's margin, so a manual hedge at market odds typically returns more. Cash out wins on convenience and works when you cannot get a good opposing price. Enter the offer in the calculator to compare directly.
Does hedging lose money long term?
Hedging sacrifices expected value to reduce variance - you pay a second margin. If you only ever bet with an edge and your bankroll can absorb the swings, hedging less is mathematically better. Most punters are not in that position, and locking profit on outsized positions is a legitimate bankroll decision.
Can I hedge a same game multi?
Only roughly. SGM legs settle together within one match, so there is rarely a clean opposing market. The practical SGM hedge is on the final outcome leg (e.g. the match result) - or take the cash out if offered and the discount is small. Price your SGM properly first with our SGM calculator.