NRL Prediction Accuracy - Live Model Results Tracker

2026 Season · 21 Rounds Completed

73.1%

114 of 156 games predicted correctly

Model: XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble · 1,489+ historical matches

Every prediction on this page was generated by the TippingEdge AI model before each round was played, using only data available at that point in the season. No results have been cherry-picked or adjusted retroactively.

Rounds 1–8 were published as retroactive model runs (the site launched in April 2026). Rounds 9 onwards are live predictions published each week before kick-off.

Accuracy by Confidence Tier

Tier	Correct	%
HIGH	44/50	88%
MEDIUM	31/36	86%
LOW	30/52	58%
COIN FLIP	9/18	50%

HIGH = model ≥75% confident · MEDIUM = 65–74% · LOW = 57–64% · COIN FLIP = 50–56%

Round-by-Round Results

Round 21

5/8 correct

62.5% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Eels vs Panthers	Panthers	MEDIUM 70%	Panthers (18–24)	✅
Knights vs Roosters	Roosters	LOW 64%	Roosters (22–23)	✅
Rabbitohs vs Storm	Rabbitohs	LOW 62%	Rabbitohs (28–26)	✅
Raiders vs Wests Tigers	Raiders	HIGH 81%	Raiders (56–10)	✅
Bulldogs vs Warriors	Warriors	LOW 63%	Bulldogs (18–6)	❌
Cowboys vs Broncos	Cowboys	COIN FLIP 52%	Cowboys (18–10)	✅
Dragons vs Titans	Dragons	LOW 64%	Titans (18–38)	❌
Sea Eagles vs Sharks	Sea Eagles	COIN FLIP 51%	Sharks (12–48)	❌

Round 20

5/8 correct

62.5% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Panthers vs Broncos	Panthers	HIGH 80%	Broncos (12–14)	❌
Sharks vs Knights	Sharks	MEDIUM 71%	Sharks (20–18)	✅
Roosters vs Storm	Roosters	LOW 60%	Roosters (14–6)	✅
Raiders vs Rabbitohs	Rabbitohs	COIN FLIP 50%	Raiders (34–24)	❌
Warriors vs Dragons	Warriors	HIGH 90%	Warriors (20–12)	✅
Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers	Bulldogs	HIGH 87%	Bulldogs (32–0)	✅
Titans vs Sea Eagles	Sea Eagles	LOW 58%	Titans (38–32)	❌
Dolphins vs Cowboys	Dolphins	LOW 62%	Dolphins (36–16)	✅

Round 19

5/7 correct

71.4% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Wests Tigers vs Warriors	Warriors	HIGH 75%	Warriors (6–32)	✅
Dolphins vs Sharks	Dolphins	LOW 64%	Sharks (0–66)	❌
Bulldogs vs Raiders	Raiders	COIN FLIP 54%	Raiders (16–40)	✅
Roosters vs Eels	Roosters	HIGH 76%	Roosters (28–12)	✅
Rabbitohs vs Knights	Rabbitohs	LOW 60%	Rabbitohs (26–24)	✅
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys	Sea Eagles	HIGH 78%	Cowboys (18–19)	❌
Storm vs Titans	Storm	HIGH 86%	Storm (22–18)	✅

Round 18

4/5 correct

80.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Panthers vs Rabbitohs	Panthers	MEDIUM 66%	Panthers (36–14)	✅
Dragons vs Wests Tigers	Dragons	LOW 57%	Dragons (24–10)	✅
Broncos vs Sharks	Sharks	MEDIUM 70%	Sharks (16–28)	✅
Eels vs Sea Eagles	Sea Eagles	LOW 59%	Eels (23–14)	❌
Knights vs Dolphins	Knights	LOW 56%	Knights (13–12)	✅

Round 17

6/8 correct

75.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Eels vs Rabbitohs	Rabbitohs	HIGH 80%	Rabbitohs (12–32)	✅
Titans vs Bulldogs	Titans	LOW 56%	Bulldogs (12–30)	❌
Broncos vs Roosters	Roosters	HIGH 80%	Roosters (18–24)	✅
Dolphins vs Warriors	Dolphins	LOW 59%	Dolphins (26–24)	✅
Cowboys vs Panthers	Panthers	LOW 57%	Cowboys (26–12)	❌
Sea Eagles vs Storm	Sea Eagles	HIGH 81%	Sea Eagles (30–4)	✅
Raiders vs Dragons	Raiders	HIGH 90%	Raiders (24–16)	✅
Knights vs Wests Tigers	Knights	HIGH 83%	Knights (12–6)	✅

Round 16

4/7 correct

57.1% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Knights vs Dragons	Knights	HIGH 85%	Knights (22–20)	✅
Wests Tigers vs Dolphins	Dolphins	HIGH 78%	Dolphins (22–36)	✅
Titans vs Panthers	Panthers	LOW 61%	Titans (19–18)	❌
Bulldogs vs Sea Eagles	Sea Eagles	MEDIUM 69%	Bulldogs (13–12)	❌
Warriors vs Cowboys	Warriors	HIGH 85%	Warriors (38–20)	✅
Storm vs Raiders	Storm	MEDIUM 72%	Storm (42–20)	✅
Roosters vs Sharks	Sharks	COIN FLIP 52%	Roosters (27–8)	❌

Round 15

4/5 correct

80.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Rabbitohs vs Broncos	Rabbitohs	MEDIUM 73%	Rabbitohs (48–6)	✅
Dolphins vs Roosters	Dolphins	LOW 65%	Dolphins (48–10)	✅
Warriors vs Sharks	Warriors	LOW 65%	Sharks (8–10)	❌
Eels vs Raiders	Eels	LOW 63%	Eels (15–12)	✅
Wests Tigers vs Titans	Wests Tigers	LOW 60%	Wests Tigers (36–28)	✅

Round 14

7/8 correct

87.5% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Sea Eagles vs Rabbitohs	Sea Eagles	HIGH 79%	Sea Eagles (28–14)	✅
Storm vs Knights	Storm	LOW 57%	Storm (32–30)	✅
Raiders vs Roosters	Roosters	MEDIUM 70%	Roosters (0–26)	✅
Cowboys vs Dolphins	Dolphins	MEDIUM 69%	Dolphins (14–40)	✅
Broncos vs Titans	Broncos	LOW 56%	Titans (23–28)	❌
Wests Tigers vs Panthers	Panthers	HIGH 77%	Panthers (0–68)	✅
Sharks vs Dragons	Sharks	HIGH 86%	Sharks (34–12)	✅
Bulldogs vs Eels	Bulldogs	HIGH 78%	Bulldogs (14–12)	✅

Round 13

5/7 correct

71.4% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Sharks vs Sea Eagles	Sharks	LOW 61%	Sharks (28–22)	✅
Knights vs Eels	Knights	HIGH 78%	Knights (28–22)	✅
Wests Tigers vs Bulldogs	Wests Tigers	LOW 60%	Wests Tigers (22–16)	✅
Storm vs Roosters	Storm	LOW 55%	Storm (18–4)	✅
Broncos vs Dragons	Broncos	HIGH 75%	Dragons (26–30)	❌
Raiders vs Cowboys	Cowboys	LOW 57%	Raiders (26–12)	❌
Panthers vs Warriors	Panthers	MEDIUM 72%	Panthers (20–18)	✅

Round 12

4/5 correct

80.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Raiders vs Dolphins	Dolphins	MEDIUM 65%	Dolphins (22–30)	✅
Bulldogs vs Storm	Storm	MEDIUM 65%	Bulldogs (30–20)	❌
Dragons vs Warriors	Warriors	HIGH 84%	Warriors (12–30)	✅
Sea Eagles vs Titans	Sea Eagles	HIGH 87%	Sea Eagles (12–10)	✅
Cowboys vs Rabbitohs	Cowboys	COIN FLIP 52%	Cowboys (30–18)	✅

Round 11

6/8 correct

75.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Sharks vs Bulldogs	Sharks	HIGH 77%	Sharks (38–16)	✅
Rabbitohs vs Dolphins	Rabbitohs	LOW 58%	Dolphins (10–32)	❌
Wests Tigers vs Sea Eagles	Sea Eagles	LOW 62%	Sea Eagles (18–46)	✅
Roosters vs Cowboys	Roosters	LOW 60%	Cowboys (12–18)	❌
Eels vs Storm	Storm	LOW 64%	Storm (8–34)	✅
Titans vs Knights	Knights	LOW 64%	Knights (12–36)	✅
Warriors vs Broncos	Warriors	HIGH 84%	Warriors (42–12)	✅
Panthers vs Dragons	Panthers	HIGH 88%	Panthers (28–6)	✅

Round 10

7/8 correct

87.5% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Dolphins vs Bulldogs	Dolphins	HIGH 76%	Dolphins (44–12)	✅
Roosters vs Titans	Roosters	HIGH 82%	Roosters (28–12)	✅
Cowboys vs Eels	Cowboys	LOW 63%	Eels (30–33)	❌
Dragons vs Knights	Knights	MEDIUM 72%	Knights (10–44)	✅
Rabbitohs vs Sharks	Rabbitohs	MEDIUM 69%	Rabbitohs (36–12)	✅
Sea Eagles vs Broncos	Sea Eagles	HIGH 77%	Sea Eagles (32–4)	✅
Storm vs Wests Tigers	Storm	COIN FLIP 53%	Storm (44–16)	✅
Raiders vs Panthers	Panthers	MEDIUM 69%	Panthers (18–30)	✅

Round 9

5/8 correct

62.5% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Bulldogs vs Cowboys	Cowboys	LOW 64%	Cowboys (12–28)	✅
Dolphins vs Storm	Dolphins	LOW 59%	Dolphins (28–10)	✅
Titans vs Raiders	Titans	MEDIUM 67%	Raiders (12–28)	❌
Eels vs Warriors	Warriors	MEDIUM 68%	Warriors (14–36)	✅
Roosters vs Broncos	Roosters	MEDIUM 71%	Roosters (38–24)	✅
Knights vs Rabbitohs	Rabbitohs	LOW 59%	Knights (42–38)	❌
Sharks vs Wests Tigers	Wests Tigers	COIN FLIP 50%	Sharks (52–10)	❌
Panthers vs Sea Eagles	Panthers	HIGH 79%	Panthers (18–16)	✅

Round 8

8/8 correct

100.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Wests Tigers vs Raiders	Wests Tigers	HIGH 77%	Wests Tigers (33–14)	✅
Cowboys vs Sharks	Cowboys	MEDIUM 68%	Cowboys (46–34)	✅
Broncos vs Bulldogs	Broncos	HIGH 83%	Broncos (32–12)	✅
Dragons vs Roosters	Roosters	MEDIUM 72%	Roosters (16–62)	✅
Warriors vs Dolphins	Warriors	MEDIUM 74%	Warriors (20–18)	✅
Storm vs Rabbitohs	Rabbitohs	COIN FLIP 51%	Rabbitohs (6–48)	✅
Knights vs Panthers	Panthers	HIGH 80%	Panthers (12–44)	✅
Sea Eagles vs Eels	Sea Eagles	MEDIUM 71%	Sea Eagles (33–18)	✅

Round 7

7/8 correct

87.5% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Cowboys vs Sea Eagles	Cowboys	COIN FLIP 53%	Sea Eagles (6–38)	❌
Raiders vs Storm	Raiders	LOW 60%	Raiders (26–22)	✅
Dolphins vs Panthers	Panthers	HIGH 79%	Panthers (22–23)	✅
Warriors vs Titans	Warriors	HIGH 81%	Warriors (28–20)	✅
Rabbitohs vs Dragons	Rabbitohs	MEDIUM 72%	Rabbitohs (30–12)	✅
Wests Tigers vs Broncos	Broncos	COIN FLIP 53%	Broncos (20–21)	✅
Roosters vs Knights	Roosters	MEDIUM 73%	Roosters (38–24)	✅
Eels vs Bulldogs	Eels	LOW 59%	Eels (38–20)	✅

Round 6

2/8 correct

25.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Bulldogs vs Panthers	Panthers	LOW 63%	Bulldogs (32–16)	❌
Dragons vs Sea Eagles	Sea Eagles	MEDIUM 66%	Sea Eagles (18–28)	✅
Broncos vs Cowboys	Broncos	LOW 61%	Cowboys (31–35)	❌
Rabbitohs vs Raiders	Rabbitohs	COIN FLIP 53%	Raiders (34–36)	❌
Sharks vs Roosters	Sharks	LOW 62%	Roosters (22–34)	❌
Storm vs Warriors	Storm	MEDIUM 66%	Warriors (14–38)	❌
Eels vs Titans	Eels	COIN FLIP 50%	Titans (10–52)	❌
Wests Tigers vs Knights	Wests Tigers	COIN FLIP 52%	Wests Tigers (42–22)	✅

Round 5

6/8 correct

75.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Dolphins vs Sea Eagles	Dolphins	COIN FLIP 51%	Sea Eagles (18–52)	❌
Rabbitohs vs Bulldogs	Rabbitohs	HIGH 77%	Rabbitohs (32–24)	✅
Panthers vs Storm	Panthers	HIGH 81%	Panthers (50–10)	✅
Dragons vs Cowboys	Cowboys	MEDIUM 70%	Cowboys (0–32)	✅
Titans vs Broncos	Broncos	LOW 61%	Broncos (12–26)	✅
Sharks vs Warriors	Warriors	LOW 56%	Sharks (36–22)	❌
Knights vs Raiders	Knights	LOW 56%	Knights (32–12)	✅
Eels vs Wests Tigers	Wests Tigers	LOW 58%	Wests Tigers (20–22)	✅

Round 4

4/8 correct

50.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Sea Eagles vs Roosters	Sea Eagles	LOW 65%	Roosters (16–33)	❌
Warriors vs Wests Tigers	Warriors	LOW 58%	Wests Tigers (14–32)	❌
Broncos vs Dolphins	Broncos	MEDIUM 73%	Broncos (26–12)	✅
Bulldogs vs Knights	Bulldogs	HIGH 77%	Knights (16–24)	❌
Panthers vs Eels	Panthers	HIGH 87%	Panthers (48–20)	✅
Cowboys vs Storm	Storm	COIN FLIP 50%	Cowboys (28–24)	❌
Raiders vs Sharks	Sharks	MEDIUM 71%	Sharks (22–34)	✅
Titans vs Dragons	Titans	LOW 55%	Titans (22–14)	✅

Round 3

6/8 correct

75.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Raiders vs Bulldogs	Bulldogs	LOW 56%	Bulldogs (10–14)	✅
Roosters vs Panthers	Panthers	LOW 58%	Panthers (4–40)	✅
Storm vs Broncos	Storm	HIGH 87%	Broncos (14–18)	❌
Knights vs Warriors	Warriors	HIGH 77%	Warriors (12–38)	✅
Sharks vs Dolphins	Sharks	HIGH 77%	Dolphins (10–38)	❌
Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers	Rabbitohs	MEDIUM 69%	Rabbitohs (20–16)	✅
Eels vs Dragons	Eels	MEDIUM 67%	Eels (30–20)	✅
Cowboys vs Titans	Cowboys	HIGH 86%	Cowboys (30–16)	✅

Round 2

6/8 correct

75.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Broncos vs Eels	Broncos	LOW 60%	Eels (32–40)	❌
Warriors vs Raiders	Warriors	MEDIUM 67%	Warriors (40–6)	✅
Roosters vs Rabbitohs	Roosters	HIGH 76%	Roosters (26–18)	✅
Wests Tigers vs Cowboys	Wests Tigers	HIGH 76%	Wests Tigers (44–16)	✅
Dragons vs Storm	Storm	MEDIUM 68%	Storm (20–46)	✅
Panthers vs Sharks	Panthers	MEDIUM 74%	Panthers (26–6)	✅
Sea Eagles vs Knights	Sea Eagles	MEDIUM 71%	Knights (16–36)	❌
Dolphins vs Titans	Dolphins	HIGH 77%	Dolphins (18–14)	✅

Round 1

8/8 correct

100.0% ▼

Match	AI Pick	Confidence	Result	✓
Knights vs Cowboys	Knights	MEDIUM 68%	Knights (28–18)	✅
Bulldogs vs Dragons	Bulldogs	HIGH 76%	Bulldogs (15–14)	✅
Storm vs Eels	Storm	HIGH 81%	Storm (52–4)	✅
Warriors vs Roosters	Warriors	LOW 61%	Warriors (42–18)	✅
Broncos vs Panthers	Panthers	LOW 64%	Panthers (0–26)	✅
Sharks vs Titans	Sharks	HIGH 87%	Sharks (50–10)	✅
Sea Eagles vs Raiders	Raiders	COIN FLIP 50%	Raiders (28–29)	✅
Dolphins vs Rabbitohs	Rabbitohs	COIN FLIP 54%	Rabbitohs (30–40)	✅

Results updated automatically each round · Last updated 28 July 2026 · Predictions generated before each round using data available at prediction time.
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