Our AI model has run the numbers for AFL 2026 Round 18. It draws on 1,547 matches back to 2019, reading recent form, head-to-head records, home-ground advantage, streaks, 5-game momentum patterns and points differential for all 9 games.
Honest model accuracy: 69.0% weighted across walk-forward test seasons - see the full tracker, graded out-of-sample so the numbers can't be inflated.
Round 18 Predictions
📍 Perth Stadium
Medium
Fremantle
88% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Fremantle
(73% probability)
📍 Docklands
Medium
Collingwood
50% wins in 2026
vs
North Melbourne
50% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Collingwood
(66% probability)
North Melbourne last 5
LWWWL
▲ Collingwood: 3-game win streak
▲ Collingwood: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
📍 Docklands
Coin flip
vs
Port Adelaide
38% wins in 2026
AI Pick
St Kilda
(55% probability)
Port Adelaide last 5
WLLWW
▲ Port Adelaide: Recovery pattern - bouncing back from losses
📍 Sydney Showground
Low
Greater Western Sydney
44% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Greater Western Sydney
(64% probability)
Greater Western Sydney last 5
WLLLW
📍 M.C.G.
Low
AI Pick
Carlton
(56% probability)
▲ Carlton: 7-game win streak
▲ Carlton: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Adelaide Oval
High
vs
Gold Coast
44% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Adelaide
(92% probability)
▼ Gold Coast: 6-game losing streak
▲ Adelaide: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Docklands
Low
Western Bulldogs
56% wins in 2026
vs
West Coast
25% wins in 2026
AI Pick
Western Bulldogs
(64% probability)
Western Bulldogs last 5
WWLWL
▼ West Coast: 4-game losing streak
▲ Western Bulldogs: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 M.C.G.
High
Melbourne
62% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Melbourne
(95% probability)
▼ Richmond: 5-game losing streak
▲ Melbourne: Better recent form (last 5)
📍 Gabba
High
Brisbane Lions
62% wins in 2026
vs
AI Pick
Brisbane Lions
(96% probability)
Brisbane Lions last 5
LWWWW
▲ Brisbane Lions: 4-game win streak
▼ Essendon: 10-game losing streak
▲ Brisbane Lions: Better recent form (last 5)
Round 18 Summary
| Match | AI Pick | Probability | Confidence |
|---|
| Fremantle vs Sydney | Fremantle | 73% | Medium |
| Collingwood vs North Melbourne | Collingwood | 66% | Medium |
| St Kilda vs Port Adelaide | St Kilda | 55% | Coin flip |
| Greater Western Sydney vs Geelong | Greater Western Sydney | 64% | Low |
| Carlton vs Hawthorn | Carlton | 56% | Low |
| Adelaide vs Gold Coast | Adelaide | 92% | High |
| Western Bulldogs vs West Coast | Western Bulldogs | 64% | Low |
| Melbourne vs Richmond | Melbourne | 95% | High |
| Brisbane Lions vs Essendon | Brisbane Lions | 96% | High |
Tools for This Round
Responsible gambling: These predictions are generated by an AI model for information and entertainment only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. 18+ only. Gamble responsibly - if gambling is causing harm, call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Predictions by the TippingEdge AFL model (XGBoost + Logistic Regression ensemble, 69.0% walk-forward accuracy). Uses 2026 data up to Round 17.
